When Turkeys Fly — The Thanksgiving Supply Chain Rush

Updated November 18, 2025—This article reflects the latest data from USDA ERS, National Turkey Federation, DAT Freight & Analytics, and the October 2025 Logistics Managers’ Index.

A fresh, unfrozen turkey has a shelf life of just 21 days—a short time to move roughly 46 million of the festive fowls from farms to grocery store shelves in time for Thanksgiving dinner. Alternatively, a frozen turkey can last much longer in a freezer, but like most reefer freight requires expert handling and precise delivery timing to keep the holiday surge sufficiently sated.

Whether fresh or frozen, the Thanksgiving turkey surge presents a unique challenge for logistics networks. The holiday is one of the few annual events capable of simultaneously flooding grocery shelves with a single seasonal product and pushing refrigerated freight capacity to its limits across the country. From hatcheries and processors to distributors and retailers, every link in the cold chain must synchronize to ensure turkeys reach consumers on time and in top condition.

In this seasonal surge, shipping professionals rely on a blend of forecasting, cold storage planning, and early reefer capacity booking to keep the turkey supply chain running on schedule. As one of the most concentrated examples of seasonal logistics in North America, the Thanksgiving rush demonstrates how precision planning and data-driven coordination help carriers and 3PLs move millions of pounds of temperature-sensitive freight efficiently—and on time.

America’s Taste for Turkey

The National Turkey Federation reports that U.S. producers raised about 218 million birds in 2023, generating  5.46 billion pounds of turkey meat. According to the USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) Livestock, Dairy & Poultry Outlook – September 2025, U.S. turkey production dipped to 5.12 billion pounds in 2024, following high feed and production costs, but is projected to rebound modestly in 2025, reaching about 4.84 billion pounds. The USDA attributes the increase to stronger hatchery activity and heavier bird weights through the summer months.

According to the NTF 2025 Consumer Survey,  94% of Americans plan to celebrate Thanksgiving, and turkey remains the centerpiece of the holiday table. That level of participation underscores why processors, carriers, and retailers begin coordinating shipments well before November to keep shelves stocked for one of the country’s most logistically demanding meals of the year.

Americans consumed 4.95 billion pounds of turkey in 2023 and 4.69 billion pounds in 2024 according to USDA ERS data. Industry analysts estimate that roughly half of all whole turkeys sold each year are enjoyed at Thanksgiving, highlighting the extraordinary concentration of demand in late fall. That surge creates a brief but intense delivery window when every refrigerated trailer, distribution dock, and grocery freezer must work in sync. For carriers, it kicks off several weeks of tight reefer capacity, with refrigerated trucks running nearly nonstop to meet holiday demand.

Managing Thanksgiving Turkey Supply & Demand

With demand this concentrated, the turkey industry depends on strategic cold-chain planning to balance production, storage, and transport ahead of the holiday season. Millions of birds are processed and frozen throughout the year to build inventory for peak holidays such as Thanksgiving, Christmas, and Easter—long before the first orders reach grocery shelves.

According to USDA Cold Storage data, U.S. freezer holdings totaled about 418 million pounds of turkey meat as of August 2025, down roughly 8% from the same time a year earlier. Despite the decline, inventories remain sufficient heading into the holiday shipping season, providing shippers and retailers with a reliable buffer for Thanksgiving distribution.

That’s a sharp contrast from 2022, when the industry faced a nationwide shortage following outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI). According to USDA APHIS, more than 18 million turkeys have been affected since 2022, including nearly 3.8 million in 2024. The virus’s continued presence, noted by both USDA ERS and the CDC, illustrates the ongoing biosecurity challenge as new detections appear in migratory birds, livestock, and even isolated human cases. Even so, strengthened surveillance and closer coordination between federal agencies and industry partners have helped keep overall production stable heading into 2025.

These biological and market uncertainties make early coordination essential. Producers, distributors, and logistics providers begin strategic planning months in advance. Cold storage operators monitor regional freezer utilization, while processors stagger production and packaging schedules to smooth out shipping peaks. Freight brokers and carriers begin modeling lane capacity and securing reefer equipment as early as midsummer, often by July or August, to ensure availability before the holiday surge. By September, most reliable capacity is already committed, leaving spot-market shippers facing tighter supply and higher rates. This level of planning enables the turkey supply chain to remain resilient despite disease risks, market shifts, and the sheer volume of seasonal demand.

Since 2022, the country’s frozen turkey supply has been largely stabilized. According to the USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) Livestock, Dairy & Poultry Outlook – September 2025, wholesale prices averaged $0.94 per pound in 2024 and are projected to rise to about $1.32 per pound in 2025, reflecting tight holiday season supply and steady consumer demand. Specialty products, such as boneless or organic cuts, are also seeing modest price increases heading into the holidays.

For shippers, that means more than managing production—it means preparing early for tight refrigerated capacity, as turkeys compete with other temperature-sensitive commodities like produce, beverages, and baked goods during the fall peak. Early coordination with carriers and logistics providers helps ensure cold-chain stability, consistent temperature control, and on-time deliveries when it matters most.

By The Numbers: How Holiday Turkeys Impact Carrier Capacity

Although the National Turkey Federation estimates the average processed turkey weighs about 15.5 pounds, shipping turkeys at scale is far more complex than simple averages suggest. Whole birds range from 8 to 25 pounds, creating a wide variation in pallet weight and trailer utilization depending on order mix and regional demand.

With a practical maximum of about 80 turkeys per pallet and roughly 46 million birds expected to reach U.S. tables this Thanksgiving, that equates to approximately 575,000 pallets of turkey moving through the supply chain in just a few weeks. At 20 pallets per truck, that’s more than 28,000 full truckloads of refrigerated freight dedicated to turkey shipments alone.

And that’s just part of the holiday picture. As reefer trucks fill with side dishes, desserts, beverages, and other temperature-sensitive freight, capacity begins to tighten across the network. According to DAT Freight & Analytics, the national reefer load-to-truck ratio averaged around 11.6: 1 in late 2025, marking one of the tightest readings of the year with market conditions rated “Very Tight” (MCI 86).  The Logistics Managers’ Index also reported rising transportation utilization and pricing, reflecting continued expansion in logistics activity driven by food and retail demand. Together, these indicators highlight just how limited refrigerated capacity becomes during the Thanksgiving rush.

Whether the product ships fresh or frozen, reliable turkey transport depends on disciplined execution. Accurate temperature control, steady communication across partners, and proactive contingency planning keep reefer lanes running efficiently even under the holiday pressure. For carriers and 3PLs, the Thanksgiving surge is less about speed and more about consistency. Maintaining cold-chain integrity at every stage of the trip is what ensures success.

Moving millions of turkeys in just a few weeks is more than a holiday tradition—it’s a showcase of logistics precision at scale. Every load relies on coordination, visibility, and control to keep product moving through one of the tightest transportation markets of the year. At First Call Logistics, that level of discipline isn’t seasonal. It’s the standard that keeps temperature-controlled freight on schedule, from harvest to holiday table.

Holiday demand doesn’t wait—and neither can your freight. First Call Logistics delivers temperature-controlled shipments on schedule with precision, visibility, and reliability built for peak season. Partner with our team to keep your cold chain moving when it matters most.